National Security Study Memorandum 200: Implications of Worldwide Population Growth

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To give the reader an idea of the energy intensiveness of modern agriculture, production of one kilogram of nitrogen for fertilizer requires the energy equivalent of from 1.4 to 1.8 liters of diesel fuel. This is not considering the natural gas feedstock.

In a very real sense, we are literally eating fossil fuels. However, due to the laws of thermodynamics, there is not a direct correspondence between energy inflow and outflow in agriculture.

Modern intensive agriculture is unsustainable. It is damaging the land, draining water supplies and polluting the environment. And all of this requires more and more fossil fuel input to pump irrigation water, to replace nutrients, to provide pest protection, to remediate the environment and simply to hold crop production at a constant. Yet this necessary fossil fuel input is going to crash headlong into declining fossil fuel production.
~ Eating Fossil Fuels, by Dale Allen Pfeiffer ~

“Food has something in common with energy — they're both commodities that you use up. And they're both worth fighting over. Naturally, if food is a problem that could blow up in our faces, the smart thing to do would be to think strategically.”
~ AgriWarfare & Strategic Food: The Agriculture Ticking Time-Bomb: F-O-O-D, is a Fighting Word, like OIL ~

Today, 6.5 billion humans depend entirely on oil for food, energy, plastics & chemicals. Population growth is on a collision course with the inevitable decline in oil production.
~ The Oil Factor: Behind the War on Terror, by Free Will Production ~

National Security Study Memorandum 200:

Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for U.S. Security and Overseas Interests, April 1974

Center for Population & Security

20 KEY POINTS FROM THE MAIN BODY OF THE REPORT

All readers are urged to read the detailed main body of the report which is presented in full in Appendix Two. This will give the reader a better appreciation of the gravity of this new threat to U.S. and global security and the actions the many departments of our government felt were necessary in order to address this grave new threat -- a threat greater than nuclear war. These 20 important points will be discussed in the remaining chapters of this book.

On the magnitude and urgency of the problem:

1. "... World population growth is widely recognized within the Government as a current danger of the highest magnitude calling for urgent measures." [Page 194]
   
   
2. "... it is of the utmost urgency that governments now recognize the facts and implications of population growth, determine the ultimate population sizes that make sense for their countries and start vigorous programs at once to achieve their desired goals." [Page 15]
   
   
3. "... population factors are indeed critical in, and often determinants of, violent conflict in developing areas. Segmental (religious, social, racial) differences, migration, rapid population growth, differential levels of knowledge and skills, rural/urban differences, population pressure and the spatial location of population in relation to resources -- in this rough order of importance -- all appear to be important contributions to conflict and violence... Clearly, conflicts which are regarded in primarily political terms often have demographic roots. Recognition of these relationships appears crucial to any understanding or prevention of such hostilities." [Page 66]
   
   
4. "Where population size is greater than available resources, or is expanding more rapidly than the available resources, there is a tendency toward internal disorders and violence and, sometimes, disruptive international policies or violence." [Page 69]
   
   
5. "In developing countries, the burden of population factors, added to others, will weaken unstable governments, often only marginally effective in good times, and open the way to extremist regimes." [Page 84]
   
   
6. The report gives three examples of population wars: the El Salvador-Honduras "Soccer War" [Page 71]; the Nigerian Civil War [Page 71]; and, the Pakistan-India-Bangladesh War, 1970-71. [Page 72]
   
   
7. "... population growth over the years will seriously negate reasonable prospects for the sound social and economic development of the peoples involved." [Page 98]
   
   
8. "Past experience gives little assistance to predicting the course of these developments because the speed of today's population growth, migrations, and urbanization far exceeds anything the world has ever seen before. Moreover, the consequences of such population factors can no longer be evaded by moving to new hunting or grazing lands, by conquering new territory, by discovering or colonizing new continents, or by emigration in large numbers.
   
   The world has ample warning that we all must make more rapid efforts at social and economic development to avoid or mitigate these gloomy prospects. We should be warned also that we all must move as rapidly as possible toward stabilizing national and world population growth." [Page 85]
   
   
   Leadership is vital
   
   
9. "Successful family planning requires strong local dedication and commitment that cannot over the long run be enforced from the outside." [Page 106]
   
   
10. "... it is vital that leaders of major LDCs themselves take the lead in advancing family planning and population stabilization, not only within the UN and other international organizations but also through bilateral contacts with leaders of other LDCs." [Page 112]
    
    
11. "These programs will have only modest success until there is much stronger and wider acceptance of their real importance by leadership groups. Such acceptance and support will be essential to assure that the population information, education and service programs have vital moral backing, administrative capacity, technical skills and government financing." [Page 195]
    
    
    What must be done:
    
    
12. "Control of population growth and migration must be a part of any program for improvement of lasting value." [Page 81]
    
    
13. "... the Conference adopted by acclamation (only the Holy See stating a general reservation) a complete World Population Plan of Action" [Page 87]
    
    
14. "Our objective should be to assure that developing countries make family planning information, education and means available to all their peoples by 1980." [Page 130]
    
    
15. "Only nominal attention is [currently] given to population education or sex education in schools..." [Page 158]
    
    "Recommendation: That US agencies stress the importance of education of the next generation of parents, starting in elementary schools, toward a two-child family ideal. That AID stimulate specific efforts to develop means of educating children of elementary school age to the ideal of the two-child family..." [Page 159]
    
    
16. "...there is general agreement that up to the point when cost per acceptor rises rapidly, family planning expenditures are generally considered the best investment a country can make in its own future," [Page 53]
    
    
    Contradiction of the Holy See's answer to the population problem:
    
    
17. "Clearly development per se is a powerful determinant of fertility. However, since it is unlikely that most LDCs will develop sufficiently during the next 25-30 years, it is crucial to identify those sectors that most directly and powerfully affect fertility." [Page 99]
    
    
18. "There is also even less cause for optimism on the rapidity of socio-economic progress that would generate rapid fertility reduction in the poor LDCs, than on the feasibility of extending family planning services to those in their populations who may wish to take advantage of them." [Page 99]
    
    
19. "But we can be certain of the desirable direction of change and can state as a plausible objective the target of achieving replacement fertility rates by the year 2000." [Page 99]
    
    
    Abortion is vital to the solution:
    
    
20. "While the agencies participating in this study have no specific recommendations to propose on abortion, the following issues are believed important and should be considered in the context of a global population strategy...Certain facts about abortion need to be appreciated:
    

    " -- No country has reduced its population growth without resorting to abortion". [Page 182]
    

    " -- Indeed, abortion, legal and illegal, now has become the most widespread fertility control method in use in the world today." [Page 183]
    

    " -- It would be unwise to restrict abortion research for the following reasons: 1) The persistent and ubiquitous nature of abortion. 2) Widespread lack of safe abortion techniques..." [Page 185]

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National Security Study Memorandum 200:

Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for U.S. Security and Overseas Interests, April 1974

Center for Population & Security

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Cover letter | Cover page | Executive Summary


PART ONE. ANALYTICAL SECTION

• I. World Demographic Trends
  
• II. Population and World Food Supplies
  
• III. Minerals and Fuel
  
• IV. Economic Development and Population Growth
  
• V. Implications of Population Pressures for National Security
  
• VI. World Population Conference

PART TWO POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

• I. Introduction - A U.S. Global Population Strategy
  • A. Basic Global Strategy
    
  • B. Key Country priorities in U.S. and Multilateral Population Assistance
    
  • C. Instruments and Modalities for Population Assistance
    
  • D. Provision and Development of Family Planning Services, Information and Technology
    
  • E. Creating Conditions Conducive to Fertility Decline
    
  • F. Development of World-Wide Political and Popular Commitment to Population Stabilization and Its Associated Improvement of Individual Quality of Life.
    
  • An Alternative View
    
  • Conclusion
  
  
• II. Action to Create Conditions for Fertility Decline: Population and a Development Assistance Strategy
  • General Strategy and Resource Allocations for AID Assistance
    
  • Functional Assistance Programs to Create Conditions for Fertility Decline
    • Introduction
      
    • Providing Minimal Levels of Education, Especially for Women
      
    • Reducing Infant and Child Mortality
      
    • Expanding Wage Employment Opportunities, Especially for Women
      
    • Developing Alternatives to the Social Security Role Provided By Children to Aging Parents
      
    • Pursuing Development Strategies that Skew Income Growth Toward the Poor, Especially Rural Development Focussing on Rural Poverty
      
    • Concentration on Education and Indoctrination of The Rising Generation of Children Regarding the Desirability of Smaller Family Size
      
    • General Recommendation for UN Agencies
  • Food for Peace Program and Population
  
  
• III. International Organizations and other Multilateral Population Programs
  • UN Organization and Specialized Agencies
    
  • Encouraging Private Organizations
  
  
• IV. Provision and Development of Family Planning Services, Information and Technology
  
  • Research to Improve Fertility Control Technology
    
  • Development of Low-cost Delivery Systems
    
    • Discussion
      • Abortion
  • Utilization of Mass Media and Satellite Communications Systems for Family Planning
  
  
• V. Action to Develop World-Wide Political and Popular ???
  
  • Commitment to Population Stability
    • Discussion:
      
    • Recommendations:
      • 1. Executive Branch
        
      • 2. World Population Conference
        
      • 3. Department of State
        
      • 4. A.I.D. should expand its programs to increase the understanding of LDC leaders regarding the consequences of rapid population growth and their commitment to undertaking remedial actions.
        
      • 5. USIA.

Sources: Center for Population & Security
Pres. Nixon's Cover Letter (PDF:2P) :: NSSM 200 (PDF:123P)